Well, over 2 weeks have passed since the referendum, and I thought that I would finish up with some reflections on the outcome and the reactions to it.
Divided country
There has been much talk about how Brexit has divided the country, and many people saying that they are devastated by the result. Well, if the result had been 52/48 the other way, exactly the same could be said! London, Scotland and much of Northern Ireland plainly wanted to remain, and have been complaining loudly about the result, but what about the rest of the country who plainly wanted to leave?
The petition to call for a second referendum has now gained over 4 million signatures. These signatories would be the first to protest in the obverse circumstances where a re-run was being called for by frustrated Brexiteers. Furthermore, it has been found that around 40,000 signatories are registered as living in the Vatican City, which only has a population of 800… People are claiming that they have been disenfranchised by the result – this is patently not the case, as all had the opportunity to vote; the referendum specifically enfranchised the British electorate.
Abuse and lies
It seems very clear to me that the VoteLeave team (Gove / Stuart / Leadsom / Johnson / Fox / etc) were at pains throughout the campaign to remain civil to their opponents. I am aware that the words used to describe the £350 million per week can easily be judged by some to be untrue or misleading, but the full analysis of the figures was very clearly aired in the run-up to 23rd June, and so no-one can have been misled.
The Remain side, in my view, ran a dismal campaign which was based on endless conjecture dressed up as facts. And, as I have said before, there can be no doubt about the extensive programme of propaganda and manipulation of selected ‘experts’ who felt they had something to gain by remaining in the EU. The In lobby certainly indulged in ad hominem attacks from a very early stage, especially against Boris. Both before, and especially after the result, the Remain camp have gone out of their way to suggest that Brexiteers are all economically illiterate, isolationists, racist, and full of hatred. What disgraceful allegations? At no point in the debate did I hear one positive message of a brighter future by staying in the EU; instead, almost every Remain campaigner started each argument by saying “I know that the EU has many faults, but….”
Catastrophic fall-out?
Perhaps I am being paranoid, but it seems to me that the Remain lobby continues to talk down the British economy in order to justify their original arguments, rather than joining in a national effort to move the country forwards.
I don’t think that the Chancellor or the Governor of the Bank of England have helped prop up the value of sterling with their comments of doom and gloom. Of course, there were always going to be some jitters in the market post Brexit, but we are only less than 3 weeks on… That sterling has fallen has helped the stock market to rise, currently being at its highest level since last August, despite the predictions that it would crash. In any case, a weaker pound should be a hugely welcome boost to the British export market, which can now start to exploit more trade opportunities around the world. It is worth remembering that, contrary to gloomy predictions when the UK crashed out of the ERM, our economy was very much energised by the lower exchange rate. Given the huge problems in the Eurozone, I cannot understand why the Euro is not far weaker, (unless the ECB is using our money to artificially prop it up), and I expect the Sterling/Euro exchange rate to recover before too long.
Already, countries such as Australia, New Zealand, India, South Korea Japan and Kenya have said that they are keen to expand trade with the newly independent Great Britain. Indeed, even China has last week that it wants to press ahead with trade talks with the UK, as they believe that post-Brexit Britain presents good medium to long term opportunities. Reaching bi-lateral trade agreements is quite plainly a far faster and more efficient process than trying to negotiate a deal that would suit 28 different countries (NB Italian tomatoes!). Given the strong wish of the German CBI equivalent to continue with a free trade arrangement with the UK, there must be a likelihood of a deal with the EU within the 2 year Article 50 notice period, even if only as a transitional arrangement leading to a more thorough long term agreement. The trade deficit with the EU has now reached a record £24 billion just for the three months to April 2016 – Germany simply cannot afford to get as bolshy as M. Juncker would like them to.
Sure, HSBC has announced that it would be moving several hundred jobs to Paris but, in the run-up to the referendum, they also decided to keep their worldwide HQ in London, rather than relocating it to Hong Kong, keeping 6,000 jobs in the UK. The economic situation in the Eurozone is so bad that few multinational companies are going to up sticks and move to the continent. Indeed, I understand that the biggest problem affecting global markets at the moment is not Brexit but the fragility of the Italian banking system.
Mark Carney is threatening to reduce interest rates from the current 0.5% to improve economic prospects. Well, this might come as good news to mortgage holders and first time buyers, and savers have already seen interest rates on cash pretty much disappear.
The FTSE100 index is nearly 21% higher and the FTSE 250 is 10% higher than in February this year, when Brexit was considered totally unlikely.
So, on balance, I do not see that our current circumstances hold any catastrophic effect for anyone, other than the very few who are just in the middle of some significant overseas acquisition. With the right government, I believe that the UK can expand its international trade across the world, especially in Commonwealth countries. I think that an independent Great Britain will reach out to re-energise its links with the rest of the world, rather than becoming “little Englanders” or even simply an outlying region of a federal United States of Europe.
The chaos at Westminster
Blimey, here we have both the Tories and UKIP with leaders who have resigned, and Labour with a leader who won’t resign… And I can hardly remember the name of any Liberal Democrat anymore!
I remain of the view that Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are the two most intellectual politicians in Westminster. The events of the last 10 days were totally astonishing. I know that Mr Gove is a highly principled, decent fellow, and the only explanation I can imagine is that some skeleton in a Johnson cupboard was revealed as part of the “Stop Boris” campaign. This would explain why Gove did a complete volte-face, and why Boris – normally a combative fellow – put up no attempt whatsoever to go for the leadership, with no explanation.
Anyway, we are where we are. I have always been worried, rightly or wrongly, that Boris might be a bit too unpredictable to be Prime Minister, and I can see that Michael Gove’s chances were severely damaged by the perception of his behaviour last week.
Theresa May has been an exceptionally long term Home Secretary, is undoubtedly a steady pair of hands, and rightly described herself as not being much of a personality. That is all fine but, despite having always made Eurosceptic noises, she nevertheless decided to stay in the Remain camp, even if she took very little part in the campaigning. Thus, it worries me that she may not present a courageous, radical lead in the Brexit negotiations to come.
Alternatively, Andrea Leadsom was at the very heart of the Brexit campaign, performing extremely well in the television debates, and there was no reason why she should not have been a unifying Prime Minister. I believe that she is very able, but she has suffered from the ad hominem attacks against her by the Establishment.
I would have voted for Mrs Leadsom, but wrote just yesterday to the Daily Telegraph to suggest that Mrs May should spell out a Brexit-dominated Cabinet sub-committee (including Andrea Leadsom) to handle negotiations and inviting Andrea to stand down and come on board, in order that we avoid a lengthy competition, and to allow a unification of the Tory party. There will still be a lot of people watching the situation, to ensure that certain Remainers cannot frustrate the will of the electorate….
We shall see….
What will happen to the EU?
I believe that the most common theme of those of you who were for remaining is that they didn’t want the UK to be the ones who cause the EU to collapse – certainly I heard not one positive comment on our future within the EU. The view has certainly been expressed to me that we didn’t need to vote Leave, as the EU would implode in a few years’ time anyway. I would say that, if this is right, it would be far better for us to launch the lifeboats from this side of the Channel, than being caught up in the conflagration.
Already, many in Poland would prefer to leave the EU and join a trade association with Britain. Recent polls (if you can believe them) show some 73% of voters in Holland oppose ‘ever closer union’, 85% in Sweden and 86% in Greece. Even in Germany, France and Italy, around two thirds are against these federalist moves. And yet the EU institutions are determined to drive towards ‘more Europe’, and this has clearly been set out in last autumn’s Five Presidents Report. They have to do this, in order to try to save the Euro. They are trying to solve an unsolvable equation, and I am clear that it will fail.
What about Scotland?
The SNP claim that they were cheated by the referendum result, and that they themselves should have another chance to vote for independence. Well, whilst they may resent the result given the clear Scottish majority to remain in the EU, most of rural England (until recently) has had to put up with years of Labour Government resulting from Scottish votes for Labour.
Nicola Sturgeon is certainly a canny politician, and obviously is playing her hand to her advantage as much as possible. However, I think that it is very unlikely that she will enact a new Scottish referendum which she thinks she will lose. All of the hugely optimistic forecasts that helped the SNP to gain 44.7% of the vote in 2014 have been shown to be completely implausible, with a fall of over 90% in annual North Sea oil revenues – as an independent country, which has been dependent on cross-subsidy by English tax payers, it would be a disaster. If they did secede in a post-Brexit situation, I presume that they would apply to be accepted into the European Union; this would mean that they would have to join the Euro, and look at what this has done for Greece, Italy and Spain… Furthermore, despite having been a net recipient of taxation from England, Scotland would still be considerably wealthier than many EU states, and would therefore be expected to contribute to the EU budget, rather than receive from it. In addition, there is the small matter that Spain would certainly use its veto, in order to avoid a precedent that the Catalonians may try to use to gain their own independence from Spain. In view of all these circumstances, how likely is it that they would vote to leave the security of remaining in the United Kingdom?
Moment for contemplation
I have included a variety of videos over the course of my blog in the hope that people who may tire of the polemics might be encouraged to continue reading further postings.... We are still, of course, completely of Europe, if not the European Union political party. Thus, I end with another fascinating visual/musical offering from Hungary. Turn up the volume, maximize the screen, cancel any adverts, and relax...
Conclusion
Well, many thanks to all of you who have continued to read my comments. What a palaver it has all been, and goodness knows what more unexpected turns of event will arise. If this all heralds the end of the EU as we know it, then it’s about time. They should have promised major reform to accommodate non-Eurozone members this February but didn’t - if things unravel quickly as a result of Brexit (Donald Tusk said that it would be the end of Western civilisation), then they have the chance to make the type of necessary reform that Cameron demanded in his Bloomberg speech, although goodness knows what will happen to the Euro. However, I am completely clear in my own mind that taking back control of our sovereignty and optimistically forging our way towards successful worldwide trade is the best thing for us, our children and grandchildren and it’s time our politicians all pull together to start putting the Great back into Great Britain.
I am signing off now.... Phew...