Before posting an analysis of what David Cameron’s negotiations achieved, in comparison to what he had said was necessary by way of reform, this is a brief comment on the latest Treasury “forecast” of doom and gloom that has been published today.
The Treasury is notorious for getting forecasts wrong. Indeed, that is why George Osborne himself removed the task of forecasting from the Treasury and gave it to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
We are miles away from the deficit reduction forecast by George Osborne some 6 years ago. Forecasts are governed by the GIGO principle – garbage in, garbage out. Anyone who has been involved in detailed budgeting in business knows perfectly well how the outcome can be massaged by the input being based on skewed assumptions... And, that a forecast of anything 14 years into the future is, quite frankly, a waste of everybody's time.
The Government has been shamelessly using civil service resources to pump out propaganda to support ‘Bremain’, and today’s Treasury forecast is no different to the ‘informative’ leaflet sent out to every household last week at the taxpayer’s expense.
Of course, I am stating the obvious here, but it does not seem right to me that such prophesies of disaster are shamelessly described by the In lobby as “facts”.
Various Government ministers last week described claims made in their propaganda leaflet as “facts” and, on this morning’s Today programme, George Osborne repeatedly described the Treasury forecast as “the facts”. As an intelligent man, he must have used such a description on purpose, despite knowing that this was a forecast based on assumptions and therefore not fact. If so, perhaps we should be careful in judging what he says....